TPRForumCURATED COLLECTION · 6 WEBINARS
Methods for estimating trade effects and interpreting policy counterfactuals.
2026-04
Ahmad Lashkaripour demonstrates a fast tariff-war model and public dashboard, then discusses what their results depend on: strategic retaliation, elasticities, welfare definitions, and production structure. The conversation makes clear why an accessible interface still needs careful economic interpretation.
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2024-06
Ben Shepherd tests whether a quantitative trade model’s tariff counterfactuals help explain observed trade changes. Hildegunn Nordås welcomes the accessible validation exercise but presses on model assumptions, bilateral omitted factors, adjustment timing, and how performance might change during structural upheaval.
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2024-03
Arne Nagengast shows that allowing agreement effects to vary across cohorts and time substantially changes gravity estimates. Rebecca Freeman and the Q&A explore slow adjustment, agreement content and causal limits, cautioning against treating weak recent-cohort estimates as proof that new agreements are ineffective.
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2022-10
Ben Shepherd models how better border procedures change sourcing and value-chain participation. Maria Persson’s discussion focuses on what the aggregate exercise cannot yet tell practitioners: fixed versus variable costs, differences between shipments, and which reform should come first when resources are scarce.
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2022-04
Dennis Novy shows why a common trade-cost change can produce very different percentage trade responses across partners. Translog gravity makes the response depend on initial import shares. Yuan Zi probes whether this reflects heterogeneous elasticities, heterogeneous policy shocks, or model assumptions—and what follows for welfare.
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2022-01
Ben Shepherd connects a policy question, structural gravity specification, estimation, and counterfactual simulation. An estimated bilateral coefficient is not a complete policy impact. Discussion with Silvia Sorescu examines domestic shipments, global value chains, missing data, and the limits of mechanical extensions.
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